The United Nations warns that a very strong El Niño will trigger extreme global weather into 2027

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a major alert warning that El Niño is now firmly established and will intensify into a "very strong" event in the coming months. Global weather models show an unprecedented, nearly 100% certainty that the pattern will persist through at least February 2027, with its climate impacts disrupting normal weather well into next year.

The event is being powered by extraordinary heat across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Surface waters in key monitoring regions have already warmed more than 2°C above average, while deeper ocean layers are up to 8°C above normal. Forecasters expect these warm waters to push El Niño to peak strength toward the end of 2026, leading UN Secretary-General António Guterres to warn that the phenomenon is being "supersized" across a warming planet.

For everyday life, a powerful El Niño shifts rain and temperature patterns worldwide, dramatically increasing the risks of droughts, flash floods, and severe heatwaves. Between September and November 2026, nearly all land areas across the globe are expected to face above-normal temperatures. Regional weather will also be shaped by conditions in neighboring waters, including a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which can either amplify or alter typical El Niño effects depending on the country.

Although El Niño is a natural cycle rather than a direct result of climate change, rising ocean warmth is making its extremes harder to manage. In response, the WMO and national weather agencies have launched their largest preparation drive in 50 years, giving farmers, health authorities, and disaster planners early forecasts to protect crops, secure water reserves, and save lives before the peak impacts strike.