Monsoon Deficit Widens to Thirteen Percent Across India as Severe Dry Spells Threaten Key Agrarian Belts

India’s cumulative southwest monsoon rainfall has slipped into a 13 percent deficit as the seasonal weather window enters its final phase, with official meteorological data revealing acute dry spells across major agricultural belts in the south, northwest, and east.
According to seasonal rainfall statistics released by the Hydromet Division of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period between June 1 and September 2, 2026, the country logged 618.5 millimetres of cumulative precipitation against a long-period normal benchmark of 714.3 millimetres. The widespread shortfall comes as erratic monsoon dynamics leave vast farming tracts struggling with inadequate soil moisture and depleted local water bodies.

The peninsular south has borne the brunt of the deficient monsoon. Rayalaseema recorded the steepest precipitation drop in the country at 45 percent below normal, followed closely by Coastal Andhra Pradesh at a 42 percent deficit. Significant shortfalls have also taken hold across neighbouring southern states, with South Interior Karnataka down 25 percent, Coastal Karnataka trailing by 24 percent, Tamil Nadu down 24 percent, Kerala recording a 22 percent drop, and Telangana running 21 percent below normal averages.

Agricultural distress is simultaneously widening across major northern and western crop-producing states. In the northern breadbasket, Punjab recorded a 32 percent deficit, while western farming tracts in Saurashtra and Kutch dropped 35 percent below normal. In Rajasthan, rainfall fell 27 percent in the west and 25 percent in the east. Across Maharashtra’s drought-prone agrarian heartland, Marathwada and Vidarbha recorded shortfalls of 32 percent and 27 percent respectively, severely straining local cash crop belts. In the east, Bihar reported a 36 percent deficit, alongside steep shortfalls across Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh.
While central and eastern coastal pockets-including Odisha at 25 percent above normal and Gangetic West Bengal at an 11 percent surplus-received adequate rainfall, the broader national deficiency is arriving at a critical juncture. Summer-sown kharif crops such as paddy, pulses, cotton, soyabean, and coarse grains are currently in essential flowering and grain-filling stages that require consistent moisture.

Agricultural economists warn that persistent deficits through the remainder of the season will not only reduce kharif harvest yields, but also limit water storage in major irrigation reservoirs ahead of the winter rabi planting cycle, adding further upward pressure to domestic food prices and broader consumer inflation.